Netanyahu is totally losing it

According to Haaretz.  Check out this analysis:

At about 3:15 P.M. yesterday, the government’s 100th day in office, political correspondents’ beepers went off. In an unprecedented move, the Prime Minister’s Bureau was inviting the correspondents to a press conference at the Knesset that was slated to begin in 15 minutes. This was the start of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s panicked, disproportionate response to the criticism senior Kadima politicians had leveled at him three hours earlier.

[...]

Netanyahu appears to be suffering from confusion and paranoia. He is convinced that the media are after him, that his aides are leaking information against him and that the American administration wants him out of office. Two months after his visit to Washington, he is still finding it difficult to communication normally with the White House. To appreciate the depth of his paranoia, it is enough to hear how he refers to Rahm Emanuel and David Axelrod, Obama’s senior aides: as “self-hating Jews.”

“He thought that his speech at Bar-Ilan would become mandatory reading at schools in the United States, and when he realized that Obama gave no such order, he went back to being frustrated,” one of his associates said.

At a recent meeting with with Netanyahu, ostensibly about the understandings with the U.S. on the settlements, former prime minister Ehud Olmert was shocked to see the prime minister focusing mainly on the media. “Is this what he called me in for?” a source close to Olmert quoted him as saying.

What the hell, dude? You called Rahm Emmanuel a self-hating Jew? No wonder you can’t work with the White House! You’re out of your mind!

Early talk on the Helmand assault

When the new Obama Pentagon launches its first major operation in its new counterinsurgency plan in Afghanistan, as it did today with a massive assault in southern Afghanistan, there are a few bloggers I turn to immediately.

Ghosts of Alexander, one of the best blogs on Afghanistan, was silent today.  Not sure what to make of that.

Abu Muqawama, the blogging godfather of the counterinsurgency-scholar community, was also unusually quiet.  A post by Ibn Muqawama draws attention to some potentially troubling signs as reported in the Washington Post:

“The Marines have also been vexed by a lack of Afghan security forces and a near-total absence of additional U.S. civilian reconstruction personnel. Nicholson had hoped that his brigade, which has about 11,000 Marines and sailors, would be able to conduct operations with a similar number of Afghan soldiers. But thus far, the Marines have been allotted only about 500 Afghan soldiers, which he deems “a critical vulnerability.”…Despite commitments from the State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development that they would send additional personnel to help the new forces in southern Afghanistan with reconstruction and governance development, State has added only two officers in Helmand since the Marines arrived. State has promised to have a dozen more diplomats and reconstruction experts working with the Marines, but only by the end of the summer.”

I’ll just repeat my earlier suggestion that the Administration ensure it has all the resources it needs if it intends to carry out population-centric counterinsurgency in southern Afghanistan (or anywhere else).  The lack of Afghan government forces and civilian reconstruction experts doesn’t bode particularly well for any lasting effect from this operation, and it’s deeply disappointing that we’ve known about these shortfalls for so long and still can’t seem to do much about them.

So that’s something to keep an eye on.  Meanwhile, Spencer Ackerman, who I also look to at times like these is writing, is looking into the same problem:

The two State Department and USAID officials now in Helmand have been there for two years, so they’re not starting from scratch in terms of understanding the area, which is a necessary trade-off of a so-called civilian surge into Afghanistan. This weekend, another USAID stabilization expert arrives in Helmand, with three more to follow in the coming weeks, and two other USAID employees will accompany Marine maneuver units this weekend. A USAID development adviser is scheduled to arrive on July 7.  By the end of the month there should be 20 new USAID employees in Helmand and Kandahar, though I don’t have a breakdown of who’s going where or doing what.

These U.S. development experts are supplemented by contract and international partners. Between the British, the Danes and the Estonians, there are about 50 diplomatic and development officials in Helmand. USAID programs also employ what I’m told, according to a fact sheet that was emailed to me, are “30 expatriate technical advisors and 500 Afghan technical staff.”

Attackerman doesn’t think that sounds like enough civilian support and, though my COIN ear is completely untrained, I’m inclined to agree.  The New York Times is reporting that hostility toward American troops is growing in southern Afghanistan.  (That shouldn’t come as a surprise.)

Let’s hope that the Obama Administration isn’t repeating Bush’s Iraq mistakes in Afghanistan.

American liberals talking about women and Islam

One of my favorite photos ever from the new york times

One of my favorite photos ever from the New York Times

There is an great, wide-ranging discussion about The Weight of a Mustard Seed on the New Yorker’s website.  (The Way of the Mustard Seed sounds like a great book; I look forward to reading it.  Here is George Packer’s review in The National. It’s a narrative non-fiction book that focuses on the life of Saddam-era general Kamel Sachet.) The discussion takes place between war correspondents George Packer and Jon Lee Anderson and New Yorker editor Amy Davidson.  Part three (of the three part discussion) deals with gender in the Muslim world.

The three participants sound like thoughtful liberals.  They speak from a distinctly Western perspective, but they remain fully aware of that fact.  It’s a really interesting conversation.  Here’s an excerpt:

Davidson: Jon Lee, George, how have each of you, reporting as men in countries where women lead, in some sense, separate lives, dealt with that? Were you ever frustrated by your inability to interview women, or to get their real perspective? And without those voices, did you ever feel that the stories you told were in some way incomplete?

Anderson: Wars tend to be men’s domains. Not exclusively, of course. But men do tend to be the primary actors, the perpetrators, as well as the decision-makers. Yes, there are frustrations to be found operating in different cultural environments. The barriers to gaining access to women in the Muslim world are real, but, on the other hand, because I had spent so much time in Iraq, gotten to know people, and was accepted into their homes, I usually found women to speak to when I needed. I wasn’t conscious of it as a limitation.

In my last assignment in Iraq, in fact, a woman named Um Jafar played an important part, by helping to confirm for me that her son, whom I called Amar in the story, was indeed—as he had told me—taking revenge for the recent murder of his brother Jafar, her eldest son. As his revenge, Amar had sworn to kill a hundred men connected to the militia that had taken Jafar’s life. At the time we spoke, he had killed around twenty. Um Jafar confirmed this and her own complicity in the murder-revenge spree, explaining it to me from a grieving Iraqi mother’s point of view.

George Packer: The separateness of men and women is always the thing that strikes me, and disturbs me, most deeply about working in countries like Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Nothing else about the conservative Muslim world comes close to providing such a stark contrast with the modern West, such an undeniable demonstration of cultural and political difference. I must say that it always feels like an entirely negative contrast. The muffling or outright sequestration of half the population drains the variety and vibrancy from public life, makes men less interesting and sometimes less sensitive, removes from the visible scene and the field of journalism one of the crucial aspects of human life.

I might struggle briefly with an attempt at anthropological relativism, but I soon give in and admit that the drastic limits imposed on women in public—I was just in the Pashtun areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan, where the limits are almost total—seem like a confession of some cultural failure, perhaps even the failure, the heart of the reason that war and oppression and intolerance are daily afflictions and, therefore, that I and other journalists keep visiting.

I’ve never gotten used to this fact of daily life; though I keep my thoughts mainly to myself, I think about it constantly. And though I don’t agree with the French and Turkish policies of forbidding the hijab in certain areas like schools or government jobs, I can’t help seeing it as an instrument of oppression, rightly or wrongly—even when it’s the voluntary and self-imposed kind. Watching a woman at the airport in Jakarta trying to drink coffee under the veil of her niqab, an act that required all of her focus and dexterity and was almost impossible to do without spilling, reminded me of the images I saw as a child of Chinese women with tiny, bound feet.

This separation inevitably affects the work. I spent enough time in Iraq, and the country still has enough of a hangover from its period of modernization, that it wasn’t difficult for me to talk to women, especially ones over thirty or forty. What we could talk about—that’s another matter. I’m certain that colleagues who are women got a lot closer to the truth in matters of the body and the heart. And because war and politics are the magnets that draw my reporting in these countries, my notebooks overflow with the words of men; women’s voices are much harder to hear.

Packer’s discourse–whether he realizes it or not, I have no idea–smacks of postcolonial theory and–dare I say it–postmodernism, at least of the kind espoused by Richard Rorty. (Read one of my earlier posts about Rorty here.)  This indicates that Packer is a thoughtful journalist (and human being), the kind of writer we are only lucky enough to encounter every once in a while these days.

Anyway, check out the discussion.

RIP MJ

An appropriate Next Year In tribute to the Prince of Pop (via KabobFest):

Restored relations

The State Department announced today that the United States will be sending an ambassador to Syria for the first time in four years.  I, of course, welcome this news and want to congratulate Washington on its sound thinking.  When I wrote my thesis about the Syrian Crisis of 1957 last semester, I spent a lot of time thinking about the future of American-Syrian relations.  I wrote in the conclusion of my paper:

Today, Syria holds the same place in Middle Eastern politics that it did in the 1950s. It is a weak state, but a pivotal actor. Despite Syria’s small military, negligible economy and unimportance as a cultural center, the country still has the potential to alter the balance of power on a number of important regional issues, such as Iran’s quest for nuclear weapons, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and the perpetual political turmoil in Lebanon. If Washington wants to solve these problems, it will have to engage Damascus. A successful American foreign policy will reject the rigid thinking that dominated the Cold War years (and resurfaced during the Bush Administration) and appreciate the complexities of the Middle East.

This paper was written during the first one hundred days of the presidency of Barack Hussein Obama. It remains too early to see what course the new administration will take toward Syria, but there are indications that it will pursue engagement with the Assad regime. On March 3, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced that the State Department was sending to high-level envoys to Syria for negotiations about relations with Israel, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and Iran’s nuclear ambitions. This act alone demonstrates a departure from the Bush Administration’s policy of isolating and undermining Syria.

Where Syrian-American relations will go next is unclear. Hopefully, President Obama, his successors, and the rest of the American foreign policy establishment can learn from history and resist the temptation to view Middle Eastern politics in stark dichotomies, avoid attempts at regime change that subvert democracy and arouse suspicion, and refrain from the use of covert action as a tool for foreign policy. These are the important lesson that Syrian Crisis of 1957 can teach us. They are lessons that we cannot afford to ignore.

Today’s news indicates a step in the right direction.  Obama seems unlikely to repeat Eisenhower’s–or Bush’s–fatal mistakes in Syria.

Negotiations with Syria?

The Pulse, the Israel Policy Forum’s blog, quotes the Israeli newspapre Yedioth Ahranoth:

Syrian President Bashar Assad recently conveyed a personal message to Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, informing him that he was interested in renewing the negotiations with Israel by means of Turkish mediation, and not by any other channel.

The Syrian president’s message to Netanyahu was passed on last night
by Dutch Foreign Minister Maxim Verhagen, who came to Israel from Damascus expressly for that purpose. The message did not address the
question as to whether the negotiations would be renewed with or without
any preconditions, and was kept deliberately vague.

This development goes hand in hand with the messages that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu recently conveyed to the Turks about his desire to have them resume mediating between the two countries.

Concurrent with the Turkish channel, officials in Netanyahu’s circle have also begun to look into the possibility of holding French-mediated talks with the Syrians.

Either way, Netanyahu seems predisposed to trying to promote the talks on the Syrian track, but has insisted that he will oppose a withdrawal from the Golan Heights. Netanyahu, furthermore, does not believe that the Syrians will agree to sever their close ties with Iran in exchange for such a withdrawal. That said, the prime minister believes that it is important for the two countries to be engaged in dialogue so they can discuss numerous issues and not solely in order to demarcate the border between them.

Obviously still off the radar at this point, but worth keeping an eye on.

Freeze means freeze

I mean, you, shitbird. -Herc and Carver

"I mean, you, shitbird." -Herc and Carver

That’s right.  Via J Street’s Twitter I learn that when the State Department says “freeze on settlement growth” they mean “yeah, seriously, freeze on settlement growth.” At least that’s what it seems like they’re saying.  The Jerusalem Post reports:

Jewish neighborhoods in east Jerusalem are included in the US demand that Israel halt “settlement” construction, including for natural growth, State Department spokesman Ian Kelly told The Jerusalem Post during a press briefing on Monday.

“We’re talking about all settlement activity, yes, in the area across the line,” he said, referring to neighborhoods in Jerusalem over the Green Line, or pre-1967 armistice line, in response to a question on where America’s calls to halt construction in the settlements would be applied.

That’s what they’re saying, at least.  JPost, of course, also points out that Kelly had nothing to say about a recent line item in the Israeli budget giving funding settlements in East Jerusalem.  Okay, maybe Hillary hasn’t gotten as tough as Herc and Carver.  Yet.

America’s refugees

Via Spencer Ackerman I found this post by Asawin Suebsaeng at TAPPED.  Suebsaeng brings our attention to a recent UN report about refugees:

According to an annual U.N. report, Global Trends, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq produced nearly half of the world’s refugees and dispossessed people in 2008. The U.N. refugee agency also reported that developing nations carry the greatest burden, hosting an estimated four-fifths of all worldwide refugees.

Last July, then-Sen. and presumptive nominee Barack Obama wrote in an op-ed piece for The New York Times that his administration would “commit $2 billion to a new international effort to support Iraq’s refugees.” Under the previous administration, the United States accepted about 13,000 Iraqi refugees, with the vast majority given entrance during Bush’s final year in office. This year alone, the goal is to accept close to 17,000 Iraqis.

Half of all the world’s refugees were displaced by the United States? I doubt very much that most Americans are aware of how destructive those two wars have been.  I knew that the war in Iraq displaced a huge number of people, but had no idea it produced a plurality of the world’s refugees.

Of course what this means is that the United States is responsible for these people.  Let’s hope that the Obama Administration, unlike the Bush Administration, accepts some responsibility and attempts to right our country’s wrongs.

Mouthpieces?

According to the BBC, “A spokesman [for the Iranian government]  said foreign media were ‘mouthpieces’ of enemy governments seeking Iran’s disintegration.” I have no love for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad or the regime in Iran, but I think they might be on to something here.

American media has abandoned any pretense of objectivity when it comes to protests in Iran. I was watching CNN for a while last night and each and every pundit, expert, and correspondent took a hard line against the regime and in favor of the protesters. Don Lemon called Neda a martyr about a dozen times. Every Iranian they talked to was a dissident.  There wasn’t a single attempt to represent the regime’s side of the story.

Where I think that the Iranian spokesman was wrong is in his characterization of the media as mouthpieces for “enemy governments.” What they look like to me are mouthpieces for the Iranian opposition. It’s natural that Americans and their media are sympathetic to the pro-Moussavi movement.  But that doesn’t mean that everyone from Fox News to NPR should act as though they are the voice of the Moussavi government in exile.

Good news

From the Washington Post:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – A New York Times reporter has escaped from his Taliban captors after being held for seven months in the mountains of Afghanistan and Pakistan, the newspaper reported on its website on Saturday.

David Rohde, together with a local reporter, Tahir Ludin, and their driver, Asadullah Mangal, were abducted on November 10 outside Kabul.

The newspaper, quoting Rohde’s wife Kristen Mulvihill, said Rohde and Ludin late Friday climbed over a wall of the compound where they were being held in North Waziristan in Pakistan. Mangal did not escape with them, it said.

The two men found a Pakistani army scout who took them to an army base and on Saturday they were flown to the U.S. Bagram military base in Afghanistan, it said.

In a statement, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said she was pleased that Rohde’s ordeal had ended. “I would like to thank the governments of Pakistan and Afghanistan for their assistance in ensuring his safe return,” she said without elaborating.

New York Times executive editor Bill Keller said the newspaper had kept quiet about the kidnapping in order to avoid increasing the danger to the men. He declined to discuss efforts to win their release but said no ransom was paid and no Taliban or other prisoners were released, the paper said.

Rhode, 41, had been in Afghanistan working on a book.

That is going to be an awesome book.